2015 Oscar Predictions

 

Best Picture

1. Boyhood- Will win easily due to its popular appeal, warm heart, nominations in all key categories (directing, acting, editing) and non-polarizing reception. Its
Bafta win seals the deal.

2. Whiplash- Yes, it didn’t get nominated by the DGA and the only movie ever to win the top Oscar prize without a DGA nomination at least was Driving Miss Daisy…..   But it is also like Boyhood, universally beloved, and could pull off a major upset w/ just enough 1^st place or even 2^nd place votes to put it over the top.

3. The Grand Budapest Hotel- Its Globe win for Best Picture-Musical or Comedy was key, but the failure to win any other Best Picture awards besides the Critic’s Choice Award for Best Comedy Movie, plus the you-get-it-or-you-don’t appeal of Wes Anderson unique and eccentric style could sink this film in the end. That and its already going to win Best Original Screenplay as a consolation prize anyway.

4. Birdman- How the Oscar vote for Best Picture is different from every other category. For BP, they use a preferential ballot ranking their 1 favorite to their very least favorite. I feel Birdman, which unlike Boyhood and Whiplash, has polarizing and cynicism factors going for it. Also it lost the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture-Musical or Comedy and the most recent film to have lost that specific prize but then went on to win the Oscar for BP was Annie Hall back in 1978. Also, its lack of an editing nomination comes as a crucial death blow to this film seeing as no movie has won BP without a nomination in that category since 1981, the year Ordinary People won BP. HOWEVER, Birdman also won the PGA, DGA, and SAG for its ensemble, and the only movie to have won all those awards yet gone on to win the Oscar for BP is Apollo 13, which didn't even have a corresponding Directing nomination.

5. The Theory of Everything- Its all but a lock to win for Best Actor and Best Score, and if it wins for Adapted Screenplay it could pull off the greatest upset in Academy Awards history.

6. The Imitation Game- It seems this will be the True Grit or the American Hustle of this Oscar year, as the movie has received nominations everywhere, yet the only major award its actually won is from the WGA, where Whiplash wasn't nominated in Adapted but in original.

7. American Sniper- This movie is way to polarizing to win anything besides Sound Editing and possibly Sound Mixing.

8. Selma- The least likely of the nominees by far, without ANY other nominations besides Song, which it should easily win as a consolation prize barring a huge upset by Glen Campbell.

 

Best Director- Richard Linklater, Boyhood. 12 Years in waiting-to-be-recognized-by-Oscar will finally pay off.

Best Actor- Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything. Its Redmayne for Theory or Keaton for Birdman, and I will place my bets on the British biopic, with the actor's intense physical transformation, genuine love for the film itself, the genius-with-a-disability factor, and the Oscar sometimes lack of semtiment (Juliet Binoche over Lauren Bacall, really?!), all factors that make Eddie almost a sure thing.

Best Actress- Julianne Moore, Still Alice. She has won the Critics Choice, Globe, Bafta, SAG, now the Oscar of course.

Best Supporting Actor/Actress- Same as above w/ Moore. Both are absolute locks, no question about it.

Best Original Screenplay- Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel. Birdman could possibly upset, but the improvisational feel of some of the movies dialogue as well as how admired Anderson is will lead to Grand Budapest winning this one.

Best Adapted Screenplay- Damien Chazelle, Whiplash. Think Precious, the small indie/Sundance favorite vs. Up in the Air and you have a perfect analogy for this year's race. The Imitation Game, like Up in the Air is liked by a lot of people, its just not LOVED by enough of them the way was Precious was and Whiplash is. Also expect The Imitation Game, like Up in the Air, to be shut out come Oscar time.

And the rest of them.....

 

Best Animated Feature- Big Hero 6

Best Documentary- Virunga, or Finding Vivian Maier, OR Citizenfour (I still haven't quite decided yet)

Best Live Action Short Film- Boogaloo and Graham

Best Animated Short Film-The Dam Keeper

Best Documentary Short- Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press One

Best Film Editing- Tom Cross, Whiplash

Best Sound Mixing- Whiplash

Best Sound Editing- American Sniper

Best Visual Effects- Dawn of the Planet of the Apes, winner of the VES Award and the Critics Choice Award for Visual Effects (OR due to its Bafta win and multiple nominations, Interstellar)

Best Music Score- Johann Johannson, The Theory of Everything. Expect Alexandre Desplat's losing streak to continue as his duel nominations cancel each other out, allowing Globe winner Johannson to achieve victory.

Best Song- "Glory" by Common AND John Legend. The Oscar's don't have the balls to shut out Selma. Besides it also won both the Critic's Choice and the Golden Globe.

Best Production Design- The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Costume Design- The Grand Budapest Hotel (w/ Into The Woods being a potential spoiler)

Best Cinematography- Birdman, duh.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling- Guardians of the Galaxy. Like Star Trek and The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch, and the Warddrobe, and The Wolfman, the genre film should prevail. Also due to its popularity, its impossible to think they will snub it, unless they go w/ the Best Picture nominee Grand Budapest ala Les Miserables/ Dallas Buyers Club.